Goldman Sachs Research anticipates steady global economic growth in 2025, projecting a 2.7% expansion in worldwide GDP, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus and consistent with 2024 estimates.
The forecast highlights stronger-than-expected performance in the United States, where GDP is expected to grow by 2.5%, surpassing the consensus of 1.9%.
Meanwhile, the euro area is predicted to see slower growth at 0.8%, falling short of the consensus expectation of 1.2%, amid potential trade challenges linked to new tariffs from the Trump administration.
In Asia, China’s economy is set to grow by 4.0%, while India is poised for an impressive 6.7% GDP increase, further solidifying its status as one of the fastest-growing major economies.
“Global labor markets have rebalanced,” Goldman Sachs Research Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in the team’s report, which is titled “Macro Outlook 2025: Tailwinds (Probably) Trump Tariffs.”
“Inflation has continued to trend down and is now within striking distance of central bank targets,” Hatzius said. “And most central banks are well into the process of cutting interest rates back to more normal levels.”
US, the world’s largest economy is expected to grow faster than other developed-market countries for the third year in a row. The re-election of US President Donald Trump is predicted to result in higher tariffs on China and on imported cars, much lower immigration, some fresh tax cuts, and regulatory easing.
“The biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard,” Hatzius added.